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Thread: Marijuana Stocks

  1. #1
    Senior Member Broencephalon's Avatar
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    Cool Marijuana Stocks

    I know we got some big ballers in here.

    With the recent Bitcoin post, I'm wondering if anyone here is invested in the weed stocks?
    Canopy shot up 20% intra-day and is hovering around $28/share.

    What are your guys' expectations with these stocks? Sure thing? Due for correction?

    What are you currently holding in your portfolio?

  2. #2
    Senior Member canuck's Avatar
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    i took a small profit earlier in the yr on sun wildflower marijuana when it hit $1.00 (think it was april), sold it.

    had some acb which i also took a small profit on.

    regretably, i do not own any marijuana anymore, my entire portfolio is now oil weighted energy stocks for the moment. if i take any new positions it will be commodity related.

    in the long run, i think these companies are astronomically over valued. i do not believe things will go as smoothly as some think. i believe that blackmarket dealers (currently known as farmers or narcos) will continue to supply a good portion of the market and I also believe other countries will legalize it to cap any "export" potential.

    into perspective, aurora (acb.to) is worth around 3.5 billion dollars on paper now, but they only had 20 million in revenue for all of 2017.

    just for aurora to ever justify their current value, they would need astronomical growth. same goes for canopy and aphria.

    overall, i i think these are good speculative bets while they lost, but make sure to use a stop. to call them a bubble would be an understatement.

    bitcoin, tesla and marijuana stocks, the jokes of 2017 that made people rich... in 2018, they will remain comical, but will they keep makin people rich? hope not.
    it's never too late to be what you might have been.

  3. #3
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    I also regrettably sold the stock before the rally and took some minor profit. Just like Bitcoin, it is purely speculation but as long as there are people taking the hot potato, it will rise. It is still better than Bitcoin. Bitcoin is just some 1s and 0s storing somewhere.


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  4. #4
    Senior Member terry.shan's Avatar
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    I have been holding Canopy for a year now, and has no intention to sell until Jun 2018. I just got into Aphria Inc. after they stroke any supply agreement with Shoppers... though shoppers has not been given the distribution license, but that's the gamble I'm willing to take, for a small investment. If anyone is going to get a distribution license, shoppers is the one to do it.

    This a high risk, high reward sector. A lot of uncertainty to regulatory restriction. However, adding a small position of a few large players in your portfolio may provide great return in the long-term. Just don't expect to get rich with this, because that's when you take stupid risk and lose your shirt

  5. #5
    Senior Member PrinceSaigon's Avatar
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    Thx for the analysis boys. Going to have to rethink my investment. I was about to take a small position on the Hmmj ETF as I wasn't sure which company would win out but I felt the industry was promising.
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  6. #6
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    Recently took a short haul flight next to one of the co-founders of Tweed whom left to strike out on his own venture. Was an enlightening hour of conversation on the subject.

    Long story short, until the dust settles with the move to legalization, there is no telling what will happen. Given that some provinces are going with the private model and others using the provincial liquor control board model for recreational use, and then there is the Health Canada supply somewhere in between with the script supply; well politely put, it's a great big soup sandwich.

    To complicate matters, he also believes that there will only be a brief recreational demand peak shortly after legalization, as (average) people realize how far a few grams will go; demand is expected to drop off sharply.

    BTW, he had on a beautiful four digit Sub... Who says potheads don't like watches

  7. #7
    Senior Member canuck's Avatar
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    What a weird trading world we live in. One minute I look and Weed and Canopy are up another 10%, the next sec, trading halted, then ACB back on the rise.

    Obviously a value buy on the quick dip. Another break out of over 40mm shares traded! 20mm in sales, a 3.5bn market cap.

    it's never too late to be what you might have been.

  8. #8
    Senior Member canuck's Avatar
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    Anyone else find this humorous... Potash Corp Of Saskatchewan (Symbol: POT.TO) was the 2nd most actively traded stock on TSX today, only above and below "pot" stocks.

    Did stoners get burned trading Potash Corp of Sask?

    Pot the new blockchain : )

    it's never too late to be what you might have been.

  9. #9
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    i am big into these stocks right now. switching most of my portfolio into them.

    i do not agree that they are any more speculative than most other investments. If you really immerse yourself you will understand where the valuations are coming from.

    the black market is going to go away quickly when the government is earning big tax dollars from the licensed supply. as for how to justify the valuations at current revenues.... very few companies are valued based on current revenues. Rather, they are based on expected future revenues. Ontario will quickly become one of the largest buyers and sellers of weed in the world, as they are will alcohol. the Atlantic provinces are securing supply with canopy and OGI with lock-up agreements.

    It is assumed that all the major Licensed Producers (LP's) will sell 100% of their supply in the first 18 months in Canada. But then you have ACB, WEED, HVST, MJN and a couple others that will be supplying Germany who has gone medical legal with no domestic production as yet. WEED just announced a licensed facility in Denmark to supply the EU.

    When they run out of their own stuff or get demand from strains or products they dont cultivate they will turn to other LP's. They already are in fact. ACB nad EMH sell FIRE's product and will continue to do so.

    Israel, Australia and various other countries are going medical or red legal. MExico just announced this week that they will quickly go medical legal in 2018

    There are dozens and dozens of catalysts for these stocks and 2018 will be just as big as 2017 or better.

    Bruce Linton from WEED said on BNN the other day that the big 5 banks will begin extending credit to the players they deem the best risks in Q1 of 2018. that will be another catalyst. Then the MOU's with BC, AB, ON and QC that havent been announced.

    The biggest catalyst of all will be descheduling in the US so that more states go med and rec legal. the market will explode when that happens.

    10 years from now you'll be buying these stocks in mutual funds as any commodity stock... But the smart money is now... or 18 months ago...

    Crypto is different but no less a legitimate asset. you just have to understand the drivers of value. If you try and use the limited scorecard that financial institutions give you then you wont be able to play these games.

  10. #10
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    Will preface this by saying i am not a big baller but i do trade AND invest.

    Current mj investments I hold 2 stock position, 1 etf and 1 fund with holdings in mj space pre ipo.

    Now for trading, i’m in and out of plays multiple times a month. The trend is your friend and chart analysis will help you book some decent profits.

    Note that alot of the big players (ahem WEED) are heavily shorted, so if you dont have the stomach to ride out the dips, stay away.

    PS, can someone start a day/momentum plays thread? It would help in consolodating these hyped sectors.

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